Cooper, U.S. Central Command commander, said on Tuesday that U.S. and Israeli military operations against Iran have been going on for nearly 100 hours, with U.S. forces dropping more than 2,000 rounds of ammunition to hit nearly 2,000 Iranian targets, destroying hundreds of ballistic missile launchers and drones, and destroying 17 ships of the Iranian navy, including a submarine. However, while the U.S. is flaunting its achievements, there are growing doubts about the continuity of its operational capabilities — whether it is the large quantities of anti-missile air defense ammunition fired to intercept Iranian missiles and drones, or the massive precision-guided ammunition dropped during air raid missions, all rapidly depleting the U.S. weapons inventory. Whether the U.S. military is truly capable of carrying out high-intensity air strikes for four weeks or even longer, as U.S. President Trump has declared, has become the focus of attention from all sides.
Anti-missile systems face enormous pressure
Al Jazeera in Qatar said on Tuesday that Pentagon leaks indicated that if attacks on Iran continue for more than 10 days, U.S. stocks of some key missiles may begin to run out. The United States Central Command said that in the ongoing military operations against Iran, U.S. forces have used more than 20 weapons systems in the air, sea, land, and anti-missile forces. These include the B-1 strategic bomber, the B-2 stealth bomber, the F-35 “Lightning II” stealth fighter, the F-22 “Raptor” fighter, the F-15 fighter, and the EA-18G “Roarer” electronic fighter. They also include a variety of unmanned combat systems and long-range strike weapons, including the low-cost “Lucas” drone, the MQ-9 “Death” drone, the “Hymas” rocket launcher system, and the “War Axe” cruise missile. In addition, the U.S. forces in the Middle East also use ground-based “Patriot” and “THAAD” and air-to-missile systems such as “Standard-2,” “Standard-3,” and “Standard-6” to intercept ballistic missiles and suicide drones launched by Iran.
On February 28, local time, U.S. sailors prepared ammunition on the flight deck of the aircraft carrier Lincoln for an air raid on Iran.
U.S. senior leaders are worried that weeks of attacks on Iran will further increase the pressure on the United States‘ limited air defense reserves, informed sources told the Washington Post. “I don‘t think people are fully aware of the impact this has on equipment reserves, where it usually takes two to three anti-aircraft missiles to ensure intercepting or shooting down incoming missiles,” an informed source said. Adam Smith, a Democrat on the U.S. House Armed Services Committee, described the current state of U.S. reserves as “tight.” “Now, the action has begun. We can‘t possibly say to Iran, ‘Hey, Iran, we’re running out of missile defense systems, so let’s take a break, okay?’,” Smith said. “This would put further pressure on our ability to defend all necessary targets.”
Al Jazeera‘s website cited the 12-day conflict between Israel and Iran that broke out between June 13 and 24 last year as an example. To assist Israel in intercepting incoming Iranian missiles and drones, the United States deployed two “THAAD” antimissile systems in Israel, while its manufacturer, Lockheed Martin, said that there were only nine active “THAAD” systems in the world as of mid-2025. The Pentagon‘s report showed that during the Israeli-Iranian conflict last year, the U.S. military launched more than 150 intercepting missiles with “THAAD” antimissile systems, accounting for about 25 percent of its total ammunition. The report also mentioned that the U.S. Navy‘s “Standard-3” antimissile systems have run out of intercepting missile inventories due to slow production, previous strikes against the Husein military in Yemen, and helping Israel defend against Iranian ballistic missile attacks.
Even worse, during the Israeli-Iraqi conflict last year, the interceptor missiles of the Israeli-owned “Arrow-2/3” and “David‘s Catapult” anti-missile air defense systems were largely exhausted, which was one of the important reasons why Israel finally agreed to a ceasefire. The Israeli military‘s anti-missile air defense systems consume such enormous ammunition that it is difficult to replenish their reserves in the short term, which also means that the United States needs to take on more responsibility in this time‘s operation to intercept Iranian missiles and drones. Although before the outbreak of this Middle East conflict, the U.S. military used transport aircraft to transport large numbers of anti-missile systems and interceptor missiles to the Middle East, it is widely believed that in Iran‘s high-intensity counterattack operation, the ammunition consumption of the U.S. military anti-missile systems far exceeded expectations.
According to U.S. and Israeli statistics, Iran launched about 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000 drones in a total of 12 days during the Israeli-Iran conflict last year. Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command Commander Cooper revealed that as of March 3, Iran had already launched more than 500 ballistic missiles and more than 2,000 drones in this counterattack.
U.S. Secretary of State Rubio admitted at a press conference on March 2 that the number of offensive weapons that Iran can produce far exceeds the number of interceptors that the United States and its allies can produce to stop these weapons. “It is estimated that Iran produces more than 100 missiles per month. In comparison, our interceptors can only produce six or seven missiles per month, not to mention that they also have tens of thousands of suicide drones.”
Cristóbal Preble, a senior researcher at the Henry L. Stimson Center, a U.S. think tank, told Al Jazeera that while the U.S. has a trillion-dollar defense budget and can afford the financial costs of war, the real constraint is the inventory of interceptor missiles, such as the Patriot and the Standard series interceptor missiles. Preble warned that the current high U.S.-Israeli interception rate of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones could not continue indefinitely, “perhaps only for a few weeks at most.” The Korean Korean Daily revealed that the U.S. has already considered transferring the Patriot and THAAD of U.S. forces in Korea to the Middle East for emergency situations.
Offensive Operations Faced with Ammunition Reserves Problems
In addition to the anti-aircraft munitions used to counter Iran’s missiles and drones, the precision-guided ammunition stockpiled in the U.S. arsenal faces a similar dilemma. Although Cooper claims that the U.S. has already dropped more than 2,000 rounds of ammunition to hit nearly 2,000 Iranian targets, this also means a huge consumption of offensive ammunition by the U.S. The U.S. Washington Post reported that long before Trump announced a military move against Iran, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Kane warned that if the U.S. mounted a large-scale military move against Iran, it could face the risks of ammunition shortages, casualties and a long-term conflict. The Financial Times said that Israeli intelligence authorities believed that if the U.S. launched a large-scale air strike against Iran, the existing precision-guided ammunition could only last 4 to 5 days.
By contrast, according to a report submitted by United States Central Command at the end of May 2003, U.S. fighter planes had dropped a total of 19,269 precision missile shells during military operations against Iraq. Iran covers an area of more than 1.6 million square kilometers, about four times the size of Iraq, and its armed forces are in a much better condition than those of the Iraqi military that suffered sanctions and blows in 2003. The U.S. plans to hit hundreds of thousands of targets throughout Iran, including large numbers of well-camouflaged, fast-movable missile launchers, mean that U.S. forces will operate or continue for weeks or even months, and the number of precision missile shells dropped will also be several times greater.
The reality is that the U.S. military‘s supply of ammunition for offensive precision-guided munitions is severely insufficient. The New York Times had previously warned that the seemingly insignificant Red Sea offensive and defense between the U.S. Navy and the Husein forces in Yemen had greatly depleted the U.S. military’s ammunition reserves. In the previous Palestinian-Israeli and Israeli conflicts, the United States had also urgently delivered tens of thousands of small-diameter bombs (SDBs) and precision missile ammunition such as Joint Direct Attack Munition (JDAM) from its domestic stockpiles to Israel. In several air strikes against Hussein, the U.S. military massively deployed advanced equipment such as Battle Axe cruise missiles fired from ships, AGM-154 “Joint Direct Attack Munition” precision guided glide bombs fired from fighter aircraft, and AGM-158 “Joint Direct Attack Munition” (JASSM), “which were originally prepared to respond to large-scale conflicts in the Western Pacific.” McKinsey Eaglen, a senior defense researcher at the U.S. Institute of Enterprise Research, said that the number of Battle Axe cruise missiles fired by the U.S. military against the Husean armed forces in a single day in January 2024 exceeded the total number purchased by the U.S. Navy the previous year. The U.S. Defense News reported that the U.S. think tank‘s chess deductions showed that the U.S. military‘s precision-guided missile munitions are long-term “in-depth.” For example, the total production of JASSM is only about 3,000 pieces, with the U.S. military already using hundreds of them in years of actual combat. The inventory of another type of “Long Range Anti-Ship Missile” (LRASM) is about 120 pieces, with annual production of only dozens. Although the U.S. think tank has repeatedly warned the U.S. military in recent years that it needs to reduce the use of these precision-guided munitions and increase the inventory, the U.S. military is constantly involved in local conflicts around the world, making it impossible for such warnings to be implemented.
Finance is also a huge pressure
In addition to the actual weapons and ammunition consumption, huge war expenditures are also a huge burden on U.S. finances once the conflict with Iran becomes chronic. Just the daily consumption of more than 50,000 U.S. troops concentrated near Iran is not a small sum. According to reports by the Turkish Anadolu Agency, the United States spent about $779 million on the first day of military action against Iran, and another $630 million was spent on pre-hit preparations—deployment of fighters, a dozen naval ships, and mobilization of regional resources. The U.S. think tank New Security Center estimates that operating carrier strike groups like the “Ford” would cost $6.5 million a day.
The intercepting missiles used by the U.S. military to intercept Iranian drones and cruise missiles are also extremely expensive. To shoot down an Iranian drone or missile worth thousands or tens of thousands of dollars, the U.S. military usually needs to deploy two intercepting missiles worth millions or even tens of millions of dollars. Even U.S. Congressional reports explicitly state that such intercepting operations are difficult to sustain in terms of cost.
In addition, Iran‘s counterattacks are also causing serious damage to U.S. forces and their allies. According to Al Jazeera on March 3, commercial satellite maps showed that Iran successfully struck an AN/FPS-132 “road-claw” radar deployed in Qatar, which is worth as much as $1.1 billion; Iranian missiles also destroyed AN/TPY-2 radar positions deployed in Jordan and the UAE for the “THAAD” system. The report said the entire “THAAD” system cost about $1 billion-1.8 billion.