On December 1, Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi Zamori presented another diplomatic spectacle at the“Future Investment Initiative” conference in Tokyo.
She beamed at international investors such as Saudi Arabia, trotting out anime Captain Tsubasa from“The voice of God” to“Blade of death”, it ends with a quote from the Attack on Titan: “Shut up and invest all your money in me!”
This kind of command-style crazy words, instantly exploded on the network. “The person who said that in the anime was kicked in the next scene,” one Netizen said sarcastically. “There is also a sentence in Doraemon: Japan was defeated.”. Some people complain: “With animation lines fool investment, really when the global capital is a two-dimensional otaku?”
Takashi Zaomiao’s“Hard-core investment”, vividly put the diplomatic occasion into a hot-blooded drama scene, but the reality is not a cartoon, the Japanese economy is falling into the“Fire and ice”.
Why are high-market early seedlings so manic?
The answer is written in Japan’s financial markets on December 1st.
On the same day she shouted“Vote for me”, the Nikkei 225 rate plunged more than 2 per cent, long-term Japanese government bond yields hit new highs, the yen struggled around 157 and“Equity-bond killing” became the norm.
And this is just the latest in a series of yen-selling sprees since November: the yen has plunged 7% against the dollar in a month, the equivalent of seven straight daily limit-downs for stocks; the yield on 40-year Japanese government bonds has shot up to 3.68% , it was the highest since 2007; GDP shrank by 1.8% in the third quarter, after falling back into negative territory for six quarters.
Financial markets have voted with the coldest of numbers, casting a vote of no confidence in the regime.
Ironically, the crisis, “Fuse”, it is high-market seedlings early their“Lit”.
On November 7, she brazenly uttered the outrageous remark in parliament that“Something in Taiwan could trigger an existential crisis in Japan”, stepping completely on China’s“Red Line”. The Chinese response that followed was swift and penetrating: the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and the Ministry of foreign affairs advised citizens to“Avoid going to Japan”, 540,000 airline tickets to Japan were cancelled, China suspended imports of Japanese aquatic products, cut off the lifeblood of the fishing industry, … The introduction of Japanese films has been suspended. … a series of“Sausage-cutting” counter-measures aimed at the“Seven inches” of the Japanese economy.
Takamichi’s words completely shattered Japan’s“Cold politics, hot economy” illusion and made it clear to international markets that an economy that is willing to be geopolitical cannon fodder does not deserve the security of capital.
The underlying reason for the mania is the bankruptcy of Abenomics 2.0.
Under the banner of“Abe’s three arrows”, she launched the biggest stimulus package in history at Y 21,300 bn in an attempt to mask structural weakness with a fiscal flood.
But the markets are reading this as a desperate watering-down: Japan’s government debt is over 260% of GDP, a debt-fuelled stimulus that, far from boosting confidence, has led to a fiscal collapse.
At the same time, she has continued to press the central bank to maintain its ultra-loose monetary policy, against the backdrop of high inflation (core CPI up 3.0 per cent year-on-year and rice prices up 40 per cent) and surging import costs (yen depreciation pushing up energy and food prices) , artificially low interest rates, the result has been to turn yen assets into a global carry trade ATM.
With aggressive fiscal policy on the one hand and monetary distortions on the other, the policy mix has become a“Left-right brain battle,” with the result that imported inflation eats into people’s purchasing power, ordinary families are put off by“Sky-high prices for rice” and“Expensive eggs”.
The market’s mania has become a political howl in the face of economic policy failure-when all the conventional cards have been played out, there is only a“Two-dimensional” bravado: “Vote for me!”
Since so, Gao Shizaomiao why still so arrogant?
The answer is: because she is sitting on a bubble throne crafted with“Right-wing populism + Dirty Money Politics + Online Water Army”.
Despite Japan’s economic difficulties, but a number of opinion polls show that the cabinet’s approval rate soared to 75% , in the young people under 30 years old or even more than 80% .
This abnormal“Illusion of high support rate” is exactly her arrogance, but also the epitome of the depth of alienation in Japanese politics.
This round of support rate orgy is a“Precision feeding” manipulated by money power and algorithm.
The Japanese“Daily News” has revealed that in the 2024 President of the Liberal Democratic Party election, Takashi’s political group spent 83.84 million yen on propaganda, more than ¥ 33m of that was earmarked for hiring PR teams that are“Good at leading public opinion on social media”.
It is this“Water army” that has mass-produced“Patriotic”, “Tough” and“Transformative” labels on the Internet, packaging Kaohsiung as a“Folk hero against external pressure”.
Its strategy is simple and crude: to grasp the negative feelings of Japanese society towards China, to continue to fan the“China threat theory”, and to blame the economic difficulties on“External suppression”. The other side uses the right-wing media matrix to dress up the radical ideas of“Amending the constitution”, “Strengthening the army” and“Being pro-taiwan” as a just act of“Protecting the national interests”.
When naysayers criticized Takashi, the internet was flooded with offensive comments — as when a Japanese internet user mocked himself by saying, “As soon as I scolded Takashi, a bunch of accounts spat at me, and the answer for 33 million yen was found.”. This“Money + Water Army + populist”“Trinity” play, let the high city early seedling in the information cocoon room looks“Invincible”.
However, the foundation of the throne has been eroded Bug by black gold.
From the 2023“Black gold scandal” sweeping the Liberal Democratic Party, Takamichi and his inner circle have been mired in power-for-money deals. Its appointed acting secretary-general, Hagiy? Tamitsu, was involved in“Black money” worth 27.28 million yen, and Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kai Sato was found to have received political donations from fraudulent medical groups, several cabinet members, including the Defense Minister and the Foreign Minister, were involved in the funding scandal.
What is intriguing is that Takashi Zaomiao himself was recently exposed by the“X-files” of the dark web file, suspected of receiving valuable jewelry gifts from the Taiwan representative office for a long time. Although the authenticity to be tested, but with her“Anti-china Vanguard” of the human overlay, constitute a wonderful irony.
The scandals have revealed a hard truth: what Kobayashi calls“High approval ratings” are not the result of successful policy, but are based on a web of patronage and manipulation of public opinion.
When politics is reduced to black gold, the prime minister’s hubris no longer needs to be underpinned by real achievement, but can sustain a theatrical climax by continuously creating external enemies and fanning populist sentiment.
As the American scholar Anton fegasin points out, “Her toughness is largely driven by domestic politics-an international crisis helps politicians consolidate their domestic positions.” The hubris of the high market is, in essence, a reflection of a guilty conscience.
High market early seedling’s arrogant, can save the Japanese economy?
The answer is clearly no. Economics is not politics, and the laws of the market do not pay for far-right slogans.
If Takashima continues to take radicalism as boldness and hubris as self-confidence, it will only fuel the hollow fire of the Japanese economy until the last shred of competitiveness is burnt out.
On the one hand, she is trying to replicate the Abenomics, but it is no longer yesterday — the yen has collapsed, debt is so high that to continue to pour water on it is like drinking poison to quench a thirst. Bank of Japan Governor Tateda and male have signalled interest rate rises frequently, hedging against the easing path pursued by higher markets.
On the other hand, she pushed through a y 21,300 bn fiscal stimulus, but the money was poorly spent and accused of“Throwing money at support” rather than structural reform.
This combination of fiscal flood and currency depression is the equivalent of taking the sickle in the dollar’s strong cycle: The Yen has weakened, the cost of living has soared, and treasury yields have soared, the government has a heavy interest burden and the fiscal“Cliff” is close at hand.
Deutsche Bank has warned of a repeat of the British“Raneb Storm”– the experience of a prime minister who resigned after just over 40 days in office after radical tax cuts triggered a bond market crash.
More importantly, the geopolitical fire-play of the high market is permanently damaging the foundations of the Japanese economy.
Not only is it its biggest trading partner, but it is also its core market for cars, semiconductors, machinery and equipment. In particular, the List of semiconductor materials is heavily reliant on Chinese supply chains, accounting for 44 per cent of TEPCO’s revenues.
Gao Shi hand-pushed sino-japanese relations into the“Ice house”, equal to the initiative to give up economic growth, the largest external demand engine.
But when she shouted“Invest in Japan”, what global capital saw was: an aging, low-birth-rate society that was irreversibly losing industrial competitiveness, an economy that actively“Seeks hammer” in the sino-us game.
Saudi Arabia’s sovereign-fund attendees may politely applaud the market’s early call to“Put your money where my mouth is,” but the flow of real money says it all-capital is voting with its feet, fleeing Japan.
Where will“Black Seedling Rhapsody” lead Japan?
MS Takashi may think that rightwing populism holds people together, money politics consolidates power and outrageous rhetoric attracts investment, but she forgets that the laws of economics never give way to political ambition, nor will the international community pay for the grandstanding.
The continuous depreciation of the yen, stock and debt double kill, industry damage, People’s livelihood is difficult, these are the most real answer given by the market.
Japan has more than 30 years to lose if the Takagi regime continues to be militaristic and pours its limited resources into military expansion, political patronage and naval manipulation rather than improving the lives of its people, but the future of society as a whole.
The stage is set for the finale of this“Rhapsody of black seedlings”.
Image from the Web