Russia: the cost is too high, slow mass production
Russian president Vladimir Putin said more tests of a new experimental medium-range missile, codenamed “Hazel”, would be carried out after the launch, Reuters reported Tuesday, this includes testing under“Combat conditions”. But U. S. experts believe Russia has a small number of such missiles, may be difficult to engage in large-scale actual combat.
According to the BBC website, after Putin announced that he had fired medium-range Hazeltree missiles at Ukraine, sabrina Singh, deputy press secretary at the Pentagon, said: “We can confirm that the Russians have launched an experimental medium-range ballistic missile. It was developed from the Russian RS-26’border’ intercontinental ballistic missile,” the Ukrainian Air Force said Tuesday, “The first intercontinental ballistic missile attack since the outbreak of the Russian-ukrainian conflict.”. The Ukrainian Air Force is not entirely wrong — the U.S. and Russia have long debated whether the RS-26“Boundary” missile is an intermediate-range missile or a intercontinental ballistic missile, according to U.S. power, it was even a key factor in the collapse of the us-russia Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty talks.
Reported that the Russian from the early 21st century, the development of both the RS-26“Border” missile and the RS-28“Salmat” heavy intercontinental ballistic missile. The RS-26 has successfully carried out many tests, including several high-trajectory tests with a range of about 2,000 km, and another full-range test with a range of 6,000 km, the Russians therefore argued that the missile exceeded the 500-5,500 km range limit of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and should be counted as a intercontinental ballistic missile. However, the US believes that the RS-26 was tested without a warhead at full range and that its actual effective range is within the limits of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, making it an intermediate-range missile. Since then, the United States has been demanding that Russia“Stop developing this new medium-range missile that could cover all of Europe.”. In 2018, Russia halted development of the RS-26 missile, but this may be because it is unable to develop both new intercontinental ballistic missile at the same time, so it prioritises the development of the more strategic “Salmat” heavy intercontinental ballistic missile, the RS-26 missile was transferred to the technical reserve.
The Russian display of the “Yars” intercontinental ballistic missile, the “Hazel” new medium-range missile and closely related. (image source: Global Security)
Development of the RS-26“Border” missile may soon resume after the US and Russia pulled out of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty in 2019, according to motive. Whether it should be considered a medium-range or intercontinental ballistic missile missile, it is heavily intercontinental ballistic missile with a new generation of sophisticated technology, possibly a shortened version of the current RS-24“Yars” intercontinental ballistic missile, it adopts two-stage solid fuel engine and road mobile launcher, which has high reaction speed and battlefield survivability. Western analysts said the Hazel medium-range ballistic missile, a derivative of the RS-26, would be harder to intercept with a hypersonic warhead. Russian military expert Aleksej Leonkov told Russian satellite network interview on 24, “Hazel Tree” is the second generation of hypersonic medium-range missiles, “It could strike a fatal blow against any target in western Europe, and if it were deployed in the east of our country, it could reach the west coast of the United States.”
Western analysts said Putin’s televised remarks proved that the missile had not yet been put into service or mass-produced, meaning that the Russian military was not yet in a position to deploy it in large numbers. According to the briefing, intercontinental ballistic missile are usually equipped with powerful nuclear warheads, so they are designed with advanced technology at great expense to enhance their penetration and survivability, the result is intercontinental ballistic missile that are slow to produce and extremely expensive. The new American Sentinel, for example, already costs $162m a intercontinental ballistic missile. Ballistic missiles with conventional warheads need to be used in large quantities and must be produced faster and at lower cost. The army tactical missiles (ATACMS) , for example, cost less than $1m, and the new generation of precision strike missiles $3.5 m; The Russian Iskander ballistic missile cost only a few million dollars. Therefore, the production speed and cost of the hazel intermediate-range missile developed from the RS-26“Boundary” missile will be the main obstacle to its large-scale operation.
According to the BBC, the Hazel medium-range ballistic missile is not just a response to previous Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets with n-made ATACMS and and French Storm Shadow cruise missiles, it is also a warning to European countries. Norwegian University of Oslo weapons expert Fabian Rene Hoffman said: The Russian signal was: “Look, we didn’t use nuclear warheads in tonight’s attack, but you know, if you keep going, you might get one next time.”
Us-made THAAD anti-missile system. (image source: Global Security)
Wu: both THAAD and patriot are difficult to deal with
The Ukrainian Security Service and Interior Ministry showed the wreckage of a Russian Hazeltree missile that struck the southern Ukrainian city of Dnipro to news agencies, Ukrainian President Zelenskiy said Thursday. Together with its partners, Ukraine is currently carrying out a detailed examination of the missile wreckage in order to determine all the details and characteristics of the missile and to jointly look for ways to deal with this new Russian weapon.
Reuters said the Ukrainian government invited a small number of media viewing the Russian military launch of the new missile wreckage, but for security reasons, did not disclose the specific location. The burned-out missile parts are now stored in a weapons research facility, and Ukrainian experts are studying the wreckage to find out about Russia’s military supply chain and production patterns, and evaluate the possibility of formulating countermeasures. According to Ukrainian authorities, the hypersonic medium-range missile reached a top speed of 13,000 km per hour on its way to Dnipro. This is consistent with Russian claims that the“Hazel” missile flight speed of Mach 10 is basically. The report said two Ukrainian experts had made a preliminary assessment of the missile wreckage and confirmed that it was a ballistic missile travelling along a ballistic trajectory and“Caused civilian damage”, but declined to answer further questions. “There are still many things that are not clear, including the extent of the damage done by the missiles. Ukraine rarely discloses damage to military targets, fearing that this information will help Moscow.”.
The wreckage of a Hazel missile on display in Ukraine
The BBC said the Russian military claimed the new hypersonic medium-range missiles were faster and more advanced than conventional missiles and could not be intercepted by Ukrainian or western air defences. Britain’s“Daily Mail” said Russia’s new missile can carry multiple nuclear warheads, if launched, “London will be reduced to ashes in 20 minutes, and Berlin will be hit in less than 15 minutes.
The Ukrainian Interfax said Kiev was seeking to acquire the us-made THAAD missile shield or upgrade its us-made PATRIOT-3 system. But according to Chinese experts interviewed by the Global Times, neither of the two us-made anti-missile systems is currently capable of dealing with the Hazel missiles, based on technical indicators. The latest model in the Patriot series of antimissile systems is the Patriot Pac-3 MSE, which uses dual-pulse solid rocket motors and better sensors, having a greater range of interception and a more accurate direct impact kill capability, but still in the overall category of terminal interception systems, with only the capability to intercept medium-to-short-range ballistic missiles, unable to cope with new intermediate-range ballistic missile such as the hazel. And the THAAD antimissile system claims to be the only antimissile system that can intercept both inside and outside the atmosphere at the same time, with a maximum interception altitude of 150 kilometers, with the“Patriot” series of anti-missile system composed of high and low multi-layer interception network. But the THAAD system can only deal with conventional medium-range ballistic missile with a range of about 3,500 km and has not yet been able to intercept a new generation of medium-range ballistic missile capable of manoeuvring to change orbit. More importantly, the current U. S. Military only a total of 7 sets of“THAAD” anti-missile system, in the global deployment has been in the“Insufficient” state.
Not long ago, the Pentagon decided to send an additional“THAAD” system to Israel, which caused many senior US military generals to worry that the US military’s global strategic demand for anti-missile systems has soared, such a deployment would affect U. S. missile defense capabilities in other regions, particularly in the Pacific. Therefore, it is difficult for the U. S. Military to transfer the THAAD system from other places to reinforce Ukraine. In addition, unlike Israel, which is limited in size, Ukraine is vast, and the range that one or two THAAD systems can protect is very limited. The Russian“Hazel” missiles have the advantage of range, other unprotected targets can be selected.
In particular, it is worth noting that live video shows that multiple sub-warheads carried by the Hazel missile hit the target separately, there is speculation that it may be equipped with a intercontinental ballistic missile “Multi-warhead independent re-entry vehicle (MIRV)”. Ukraine lacks a midcourse interception capability, and the existing anti-missile system can only perform terminal interceptions, making it difficult to deal with multiple sub-warheads at the same time, thus greatly reducing the success rate of the interception. In addition, the Hazel missile with hypersonic warhead, Ukraine and even the current U. S. Arsenal does not have a suitable anti-missile system to deal with.