Fumio Kishida, the prime minister and President of the Liberal Democratic Party of the ruling party, announced on the 14th that he would not take part in the party’s presidential election to be held in September. This means that after the election he will no longer serve as Prime Minister of Japan, the LDP will take over the new president of the Prime Minister.
Analysts believe Kishida’s decision to drop out of the race was a result of his inability to change a long period of low support for the cabinet as a result of the LDP’s “Black Gold” scandal, the loss of party support by raising concerns about the prospects of future elections. There will be fierce competition within the LDP for the job in the future, with the result of the presidential election more unpredictable than ever and the political outlook in Japan more uncertain.
Called Redeeming Trust
Japanese media reported suddenly on the morning of the 14th that Kishida had decided to give up his candidacy. Kishida then held a press conference at noon to announce the news. He said the President of the Liberal Democratic Party election had to show the country that “The LDP will change” and that his own withdrawal from the race was a “First step” to do so in a way that was “Most understandable”.
Kishida spoke of the need to show the nation that “The LDP will change” because of the scandals that have plagued the party during his time in office, in particular, members of the Diet received kickbacks from party bosses to form “Black gold”, greatly undermining the trust of the Japanese people in their own politics, but also hit the support rate of Kishida’s cabinet and the Liberal Democratic Party. After the “Black Gold” scandal broke last November, support for Kishida’s cabinet hit record lows and remained in “Dangerous Waters” of less than 30 per cent.
Kishida told a news conference he had been criticised for “Politics and money”, which are based on National Trust, so he made the“Momentous decision” not to run again with a strong will to“Move forward with reform”.
The cause of the loss of support
Analysts point out that while Kishida claims he withdrew to restore National Trust in politics, the loss of LDP support may have been the real reason for Kishida’s withdrawal.
Indeed, Kishida has met several times this year for dinners with Taro Aso, the party boss and vice-president, and is thought to be seeking Aso’s support for his re-election as president. However, Kishida has been unable to boost support effectively, with the LDP losing key elections in April’s Lower House of Parliament by-elections and July’s Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly by-elections. The LDP faces growing electoral pressure as the current Lower House of Parliament expires in October and Upper House elections are due next summer. Calls for Kishida to step down are growing in the party amid growing concern that Kishida’s low approval ratings are a drag on the party. Yoshihide Suga, the former prime minister, in June publicly accused Kishida of failing to take responsibility for the “Black gold” scandal, saying the President of the Liberal Democratic Party election was an important moment of “Refreshing” for the nation. Sasakawa Boyi, a former deputy environment minister, also publicly demanded in July that Kishida“Must make an end to this”.
Chen Yang, a visiting researcher at the Center for Japanese studies at Liaoning University, pointed to widespread lack of support within the LDP and the “Coercion” of party bosses as important reasons for Kishida’s decision to abandon his candidacy. Ukeru Magosaki, a former foreign ministry official, agreed that Kishida had probably decided not to run because of rising opposition in his party to his re-election.
Asked at a news conference why he chose to drop out of the race now, Kishida said he hoped to set the direction for the future on the policy issues he was working on, progress has been made on a number of issues over the past month and a half. But Chen Yang believes the real reason for Kishida’s decision to drop out of the race at this point could be the failure of his “Last stand”.
Kishida was due to visit Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Mongolia from September to December, where he will attend the “Central Asia Plus Japan” summit. But Kishida had to cancel his trip after a 7.1-magnitude earthquake Japan Meteorological Agency off the coast of Miyazaki Prefecture yesterday, prompting warnings that a major earthquake in the South China Sea Trough in the eastern Pacific Ocean was more likely, stay in the country to deal with the possibility of a major earthquake. Chen Yang said Kishida had hoped the visit would be a last-ditch attempt to boost his popularity with diplomatic results, but the sudden earthquake threw his plans into disarray.
Increased uncertainty
Kishida’s decision not to run for re-election was President of the Liberal Democratic Party. After this news came out, the Japanese government and opposition people in an interview with the media said it was“Shocked.”. Jun Azumi, chairman of the Parliamentary Policy Committee of the largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, said the overall political situation would become unstable in the future.
After Kishida’s withdrawal, the choice of a new president became the focus of public opinion. At present, the former secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party Shi Po Mao has indicated the intention to participate in the election. He said after Kishida renounced his candidacy that he would“Take responsibility” if he could assemble the 20 members of Congress needed to run. It was also reported that Digital Minister Tar? Kon? had dinner with Mau on the 10th to express his will to run for office and introduce his policy ideas for future elections. Also considered likely candidates are LDP secretary-general Toshimitsu Motegi, Chief Cabinet Secretary Lin Fangzheng, Economic Security Minister Takaichi Zaomiao, former Environment Minister Shinjir? Koizumi, and former Economic Security Minister Kobayashi Eagle.
Japanese TV Asahi said Kishida had dropped out of the race, making it easier for his cabinet and senior LDP leaders such as 2003 Pacific motorcycle Grand Prix, Kono and Takeshi to run. Chen Yang said that with Kishida out, these people would no longer have the embarrassment of “Backstabbing leadership” and could now shed their “Ideological baggage” and run more aggressively, so this election could be contested by more people.
As for who is more likely to become the LDP’s new president and Prime Minister, Chen Yang points out that past alliances between party factions have played a big role in President of the Liberal Democratic Party elections, with results relatively easy to predict. But so far this year, Kishida has disbanded a number of important LDP factions in the wake of the “Black gold” scandal, making the election for the presidency unpredictable.
According to Ukeru Magosaki, each of these potential candidates has disadvantages or problems. Some have low support ratings within the party, some have fierce opponents within the party, some do not have a broad enough base of support, and some do not have a clear intention to run, it is too early to predict who will be elected.