The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for nearly four years. According to the Ukrainian national news agency on February 7, President Zelensky told the media that the U.S. side hopes the Russo-Ukrainian conflict will end by June this year, and for the first time proposed that the two countries‘ teams come to the U.S. to hold talks soon, with the Ukrainian side attending the appointment. Why June? Zelensky said the U.S. side chose this summer as the “end deadline” because the U.S. congressional midterm election campaign will begin at that time, “elections are absolutely more important to them, let‘s not be naive.” These news have not been confirmed by the U.S. side and the Russian side. The Russian “Ukrinform” said on February 8 that Zelensky‘s latest “shamely false statements” about the negotiation process are essentially still looking for excuses to obstruct the peace talks process. However, both sides believe that the window for ceasefire negotiations is shortening as the United States midterm election approaches.
Feb. 7, Lwów, Ukraine. The Ukrainian side said that Russia launched a new round of large-scale attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities that day, and the entire country implemented emergency rotating power outages.
“The Americans are very anxious”
According to reports, Zelensky held a briefing with reporters on the 6th, and the relevant content was released on the 7th. In the meeting, Zelensky said: “The Americans have proposed that Russia and Ukraine end the war before this summer, and they may press both sides according to this schedule.” “If the Russians are really prepared to end the war, then setting a deadline is very important.” He also revealed, “For the first time, the United States has proposed that the two negotiating teams of Ukraine and Russia meet in the United States, probably in Miami a week from now. We have confirmed that we will participate.” The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) said that neither Washington nor Moscow immediately made comments on this, but that U.S. President Trump has been working to push for the end of this conflict since taking office again more than a year ago.
Zelensky said at the meeting on the same day that the U.S. had proposed signing all the ceasefire agreements at the same time, but he thought this was not the right approach. The U.S. had previously proposed a “phase-by-phase ceasefire” to the U.S., clarifying what each side “needs to do at what time, in what stages.” According to the Washington Post, Zelensky also said that his intelligence sources showed that Russia and the U.S. were discussing a bilateral economic agreement worth about $12 trillion, a document that outlined the framework for U.S.-Russian economic cooperation, which he called the “Dmitriev Plan”—Kiril Dmitriev, the head of Russia‘s sovereign wealth fund, Russia’s special representative for foreign investment and economic cooperation, and a central figure in the ceasefire negotiations.
Zelensky said Ukraine was not aware of all the bilateral economic or commercial agreements discussed between the United States and Russia, but some of them may involve Ukraine‘s sovereignty and security. “Ukraine will not support any such agreement that involves us and is reached without our consent.”
In addition to the “June armistice” statement, there is another “March armistice” statement. Reuters reportedly quoted an insider on June as saying that U.S. and Ukrainian negotiators discussed the ambitious goal of Russia and Ukraine reaching a peace agreement in March, and planned to hold national elections in Ukraine in May and hold a referendum on the proposed peace agreement. “The Americans are very anxious,” one source said. The U.S. negotiator warned Ukraine that as the U.S. midterm congressional elections in November approach, Trump may pay more attention to domestic affairs, which means U.S. senior officials will not have enough time and political capital to pay attention to the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks.
“Fantasy”
Reuters said the “March Armistice” schedule could be postponed given the lack of consensus between Russia and Ukraine on this key territorial issue. Some sources also said that the schedule proposed by the United States was fanciful. According to Ukrainian election authorities, it would take about six months to organize a national election under the current circumstances, and legislation would need to be amended because elections are prohibited during martial law in Ukraine. A Ukrainian official said Zelensky is open to the idea of holding elections in the near future. Although his support has declined since the outbreak of the conflict in 2022, it is still well above 50 percent, and he is confident that he can win.
Russia, U.S. and U.S. have recently held several talks without making any breakthroughs. As the United States midterm election approaches and the window of time for the U.S. to reach an agreement with U.S. and U.S. is shortening, Russia‘s “Ukraine Network” said Zelensky was extremely anxious that the U.S. might pressure the U.S. on issues such as territory. He secretly accused the U.S. of pressure and indicated that the U.S. would not withdraw its troops from the east, in an attempt to push the U.S. to point its guns at Russia.
The Russian Military Observation Network cited an analysis on the 8th that the delay in resolving the core issues will lead to a stalemate in Russian-Ukrainian negotiations that is unlikely to be broken in the short term. With the United States midterm election looming, the United States may intensify pressure on Russia and Ukraine to reach an agreement as soon as possible to show the results of mediation. Russia and Ukraine are also trying to make the United States stand as close to their side as possible. Under the current situation, the Russian-Ukrainian competition on the battlefield will not weaken, and both sides are trying to obtain more favorable conditions for negotiations.
Zhang Hong, a researcher at the Russian Institute of Eastern Europe and Central Asia at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the Global Times on the 8th that Ukraine is currently in a difficult situation, struggling to make a choice between territorial concessions and national survival, while the United States is expected to continue to pressure Ukraine in hopes of reaching a hasty agreement that will bring political boost to the midterm elections.
Ukraine Asks Poland to “Borrow Power”
“As diplomatic mediation continues, Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities are also continuing.” According to the BBC, Ukraine‘s national power grid operator said on July that Russian troops recently launched a large-scale attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, resulting in a nationwide power outage. Ukraine‘s energy minister Shmegar said that the entire country is implementing emergency rotating power outages and has requested emergency power supply from neighboring Poland.
Zelensky posted on social media on the 8th that over the past week, the Russian military launched more than 2,000 drones, 1,200 guided air bombs, and 116 different types of missiles into Ukraine. The Russian military is attacking Ukraine‘s energy, logistics infrastructure, and residential areas almost daily. On the 7th, the Russian military launched a new round of air strikes against Ukraine using more than 400 drones and nearly 40 missiles, with main targets being Ukraine‘s power grid, power generation facilities, and power distribution stations.
Russia announced on the 8th that it has captured the perpetrator of the previous attempt to assassinate Vice-General Alekseyev of the Russian Ministry of Defense, and that the Federal Security Bureau and the Ministry of the Interior have identified his accomplices. According to the Russian news agency, the direct perpetrator of the shooting incident was Russian citizen L. Kolba (who fled to the UAE after committing the crime and has been arrested), and his accomplices were Russian citizens V. Vasin (who has been arrested in Moscow) and Z. Serebritskaya (who has fled to Ukraine). Russia accused Ukraine of being the mastermind behind this shooting incident, with the goal of disrupting peace negotiations. The Ukrainian side denied this.