On August 18th Putin flew to Baku for a two-day state visit. The Russian president’s visit has attracted much attention, in part because it comes at a special time when Ukrainian troops are invading Russian territory. The timing of Putin’s visit underscores the Caucasus significance of the current geopolitical landscape in the South Caucasus. Located at the“Crossroads” of Eurasia, the region is both a“Crossroads” of civilizations and a hotbed of conflict, as well as an important thoroughfare for Eurasian oil transport, it is also a key link in the north-south international transport corridor, a strategic buffer between Russia and Europe, and a battleground for influence. With the outbreak of the Russian-ukrainian conflict, the importance of the southern Caucasus in the geopolitical game has further increased, and under the new political reality, the diplomacy in the region has also emerged a new trend.
Russian President of Azerbaijan Rauf Aliyev greets visiting Russian President Vladimir Putin in Baku August 19,2010.
Civilization“Crossroads”+ strategic buffer zone
The Caucasus is a Caucasus Mountains region between the Black and Caspian seas at the junction of Western Asia and Eastern Europe. The region is further divided into the Caucasus of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia and the Caucasus of the Russian Federation, dagestan, Chechnya, the autonomous republic are all here.
According to the map, the southern Caucasus lies at the “Crossroads” of Eurasia, across the Black Sea and Europe, and across the Caspian Sea and Central Asia to China. All three countries in the region are adjacent to regional or world powers. Azerbaijan is bordered by the Caspian Sea to the east, Iran and Turkey to the south and Russia to the north. Armenia is bordered by Turkey to the west and Iran to the south. Georgia is bordered by Russia to the north, Turkey to the southwest and the Black Sea to the west.
“There are all kinds of climates and landscapes — from deserts to the subtropical fertile areas along the Black Sea coast to temperate Wine Country,” Drvar, senior fellow for Eastern Europe and Caucasus at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace European Institute, said in an interview, the southern Caucasus is defined by two huge mountain ranges, the Greater Caucasus and the Lesser Caucasus. The region’s incredible ethnic and linguistic diversity is a product of history and geography, and its cultural Caucasus lies at the “Crossroads” between Islam and Christianity.
The southern Caucasus, home to dozens of ethnic groups, is a complex region in its own right, according to an anonymous academic interviewed by the Global Times’ Russian correspondent, there were many ethnic and religious conflicts in history. In addition, public information indicates that the Georgian population is predominantly Orthodox, the Armenian population is predominantly Christian, while the Azerbaijani population is predominantly Muslim and Shia, but there is no emphasis on sectarian differences. Historically, says Drvar, the southern Caucasus has been considered a conflict-prone area. Armenia and Azerbaijan have clashed repeatedly over the Nagorno-Karabakh Nagorno-karabakh region, while the Russians and Georgians have fought wars over Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
The southern Caucasus is an important part of the euro-asian oil corridor. The Caspian Sea region, in the heart of Eurasia, is teeming with major oil and gas pipelines linked to European and international energy markets, the BBC and US Foreign Policy magazine reported earlier, very close to the Nagorno-karabakh area. There are three land routes for the transport of energy and goods between Europe and Nagorno-karabakh, via Iran, Russia or Azerbaijan. As relations with Russia and Iran deteriorate, this leaves only one viable land route for Eurasian trade: through Azerbaijan. At one point during the war in Afghanistan, one-third of all fuel and logistical supplies for U. S. and NATO forces were routed through Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Wang Jingguo, a professor at Lanzhou University’s School of Politics and international relations, told the global times that the Caucasus is strategically important not only because of its unique location, it is also rich in energy resources. Wang explains that the Caspian Sea, where the Caucasus lies, is known as the “Second Persian Gulf” and is rich in oil and gas. It is estimated that the Caspian Sea area holds approximately 18 per cent of the world’s total oil reserves. The Black Sea, near the southern Caucasus, is an important route for oil and gas from the Middle East and Central Asia to Europe and from Russia to the Mediterranean by Turkish Straits. Control of the Black Sea is critical to the safety of oil pipelines, so the region’s role as an energy corridor is critical.
The Caucasus is seen as a strategic buffer between East and west, NATO and Russia. The Oil-rich region is also a space for extremist activity.
“Geopolitical and historical rivalries have complicated the conflict.” NATO member Turkey and Oil-rich Azerbaijan are both predominantly Islamic, according to the BBC and other media, and have the same cultural origin, the two countries have close relations. Turkey and Armenia have long had a rocky relationship. Russia has military bases in Armenia and good relations with Azerbaijan.
“Many nations have interests here.”
Previous Tony Blair from the Institute for Global Change have suggested that the strategic importance of Caucasus can be traced back to Russian Empire, when Russian Empire needed to expand its territory as a bulwark against Ottoman Empire. Russian Empire moved its capital from St Petersburg, its main port, to Moscow, inland. Then, in the early 1800s, Russian Empire entered the Northern Caucasus, and southward directly established a huge buffer zone between Moscow and the Ottoman Empire.
It is precisely because of its importance that many countries attach great importance to the Caucasus. In February, Georgian Academic Afdaliani Carnegie Endowment for International Peace on the website of the US that Turkey is an important ally of Azerbaijan and has close ties with Georgia, the baku-tbilisi-Kars Railway, a regional railway linking Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, is an example of Ankara’s drive for regional transport. In October, the 2023 signed an agreement with Azerbaijan on a transit corridor linking Azerbaijan to its enclave of Nakhchivan through Iranian territory. Iran has also advanced work on a north-south international transport corridor from southern Iran to Russia via Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea. Other Tehran initiatives include the development of a road through Armenia, which could establish a solid link between Iran and Georgia’s Black Sea ports of Poti and Batumi.
Europe and the US, which had paid little attention to the Caucasus before the conflict, are also strengthening military ties with countries in the region. According to Agence France-presse and other media reports, from July 16 to 24, Armenia and the U. S. military in Europe and Africa, and the U. S. state of Kansas National Guard of the United States joint military exercises. The same month, the European Council issued a statement saying the EU had decided to provide $10m in aid to the Armenian Armed Forces. This is the first time the EU has decided to support Armenia through the European peace facility. Le Cornu, the French Defence Minister, said recently that Armenia had signed a contract with the French to buy the “Caesar” self-propelled artillery units that the French were supplying to the Ukrainians.
Why are so many Caucasus interested in the south? On the issue, the unnamed academic said South Caucasus was a potential flashpoint in the context of the conflict. Wang Babayev, director of the Russian Academy of Sciences China and modern Asia Institute, told the Global Times’ Russia correspondent that the region has always been the crossroads of global trade and cultural exchanges. Russia, the United States, the European Union, Turkey and Iran are among the countries with interests here.
According to Wang’s analysis, for the Russians, the southern Caucasus lies in the heart of Eurasia, bordering Russia, which sees the region as a buffer for its strategic security, and for the Americans, the southern Caucasus is a “Front line” that further squeezes the Russians, providing a counterweight to Russian dominance by increasing its influence in the region, and for the European Union, the EU is increasingly focused on Azerbaijani energy resources and wants to ensure diversification and security of energy supplies by strengthening ties with the Caucasus. Against the backdrop of deteriorating relations between Russia and the west, the EU wants to use the Caucasus as an alternative corridor between Central Europe and Russia to reduce dependence on Russian energy and transport links.
Some of the actions of the US and Europe in the South Caucasus Russian resentment. The Russian satellite news agency reported that U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Brian o’brien recently said that a large portion of the population of Armenia“Wants to keep their distance from Russia.” America is creating the conditions for that. In response, Russian foreign ministry spokesman Zacharová said on August 8 that the US was trying to take over the governance system in the Caucasus, control the resource base and exploit the transit potential. She also criticised the west for pushing a destructive agenda in the south, with the aim of Caucasus the region and undermining its historical ties with Russia. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Kaluzin cautioned that the West’s agenda in the Caucasus did not always serve the interests of countries in the region.
“Is undergoing a geopolitical revolution.”
“The southern Caucasus is undergoing a geopolitical transformation,” Afdaliani said in his article, adding that the continuation of the Russian-ukrainian conflict and the resolution of the Armenian-azerbaijani conflict, means the region is entering a new era. During this period, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia have gradually become more confident on the world stage and are all pursuing a pluralistic foreign policy. Georgia has increased its interaction with the European Union, while Azerbaijan has sought closer relations with Turkey and a number of Central Asian and European countries. Armenia has pushed for more engagement with the European Union, reconciliation with Turkey and even plans to establish military ties with India and some European countries.
Afdaliani believes the Caucasus is building more links with the region, including energy links and security co-operation. Azerbaijan has become one of Turkey’s main gas suppliers, providing about 16 per cent of its gas supply in 2022, while Iran and Armenia have agreed to extend a gas trade agreement until 2030. The Saudi 2023 established diplomatic relations with Armenia in November, which has also expanded relations with other Gulf states. A similar trend has emerged in Georgia’s relations with countries such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Jordan.
Wang told the global times that, in general, the foreign policies of Caucasus countries have shown a trend of diversification. Instead of relying solely on a single power or regional organization, countries seek to establish cooperative relationships with multiple countries and international organizations to balance regional forces and safeguard their own interests. At the same time, significant changes have taken place in the diplomatic relations between the Caucasus countries.
Speaking to reporters, Wang said that Armenia was once a close ally of Russia and the two countries had profound cooperation in many fields. In recent years, however, Armenia’s relations with Russia have been somewhat frayed; in recent years, relations between Russia and Azerbaijan have been gradually moving closer from Turkey, which had previously been Azerbaijan’s main supporter. The reason for this is that the Armenian side is unhappy with its failure in the conflict in Nagorno-karabakh and with Russian positions and actions in the mediation of the conflict.
“The situation in the Caucasus has changed,” Babayev told the Global Times’ Russian correspondent. “Armenia has changed its policy direction and sought support from the west, georgia and Azerbaijan are looking for opportunities to pursue a policy of independence. The stability of the region will depend on whether the Caucasus can balance American and Russian, European and Turkish interests. But it is clear that neighbouring Russia, Turkey and Iran will remain major players in the region.
In response to Putin’s recent state visit to Azerbaijan, the rome-based newspaper Eurasia News Network said, the strengthening of the partnership between Russia and Azerbaijan has significant implications for regional stability and international relations. Deepening cooperation between the two countries could exacerbate existing tensions with Armenia or prompt it to rebalance its foreign policy. The Azerbaijani foreign minister, in the presence of the Russian representative, expressed his willingness to sign a peace agreement with the Armenian Foreign Minister in Moscow, which had once again demonstrated its decisive role in the political ecology of the Caucasus, suggests that Armenia may need to rely more on its historical allies than on the west.