On March 3, local time, Ukrainian president Zelenskiy concluded a”Pro-ukrainian” summit in London, Britain, with a pledge from more than a dozen European countries that”We are all in this together.”, i’m back in Kiev. Face home also don’t forget to shout a high-profile: “The war with Russia is still very far away from the end.”. That sounds like a big slap in the face to Donald Trump.
Donald Trump, who was outraged by Zelenskiy’s remarks, denounced them in a”Truth Society” post on Wednesday as”The worst possible statement”, warning that”America will not tolerate it any longer”, and ridicule the European countries: “These countries think they alone can intimidate Russia? What on earth do they think?”
Subsequently, the Donald Trump administration announced it was halting funding for new arms sales to Ukraine and was considering a freeze on arms shipments from US stockpiles. All U.S. military equipment that is not currently in Ukraine will be suspended, Bloomberg said, including weapons that are being transported on aircraft and ships and waiting to be transported in transit zones in Poland. The suspension of US military aid is unprecedented in scope. According to U.S. media statistics, since the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, The Pentagon alone has provided 71 arms shipments worth 33.8 billion U.S. dollars to Ukraine, including more than 3 million artillery shells, tens of thousands of missiles, thousands of armored vehicles and 31 M1A1 main battle tanks. But with the Donald Trump administration pulling the plug on aid, Ukrainian stockpiles are running out — as Zelensky recently admitted publicly: “We have almost no patriot missiles left.”.
Even more deadly was the simultaneous cut-off of US intelligence support. Earlier, the U. S. military electronic reconnaissance aircraft, satellite systems and”Star chain” service for the Ukrainian army to provide more than 70% of the battlefield intelligence. Ukrainian raids on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, deployment of air defence systems and even drone strikes rely on real-time US data. Without this vital information, the Ukrainian army would”Lose its eye” and its chain of command could collapse. It also United States Agency for International Development plans to help restore the country’s electricity grid, another blow to a military-industrial complex that relies on electricity for drones and ammunition.
In the face of the U. S. default, European countries in the”Support Ukraine” summit trying to show”Backup” ability behind, what are the structural flaws? First, there is an order of magnitude gap between European military assistance and that of the US. From the perspective of aid types, U.S. aid mainly focuses on military aspects, the Seahorse Long-range rocket system, Patriot air defense system, and F-16 fighter jets are all important military equipment provided by the United States to Ukraine. On the European side, with the exception of aid from the European Union, the share of aid provided by European countries is about the same as that provided by the United States, but mainly in the areas of economic, energy and humanitarian assistance. Crucially, the lack of independent European military delivery capability — the british-led cease-fire plan explicitly called for”American air cover and surveillance support,” and French President Maqueron acknowledged that, european defence”Remains part of the NATO framework”.
Second, Europe is riddled with internal contradictions. Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic favor a tough stance toward Russia, while France and Germany are more inclined to compromise through negotiations. As a result, EU sanctions against Russia, such as the 16th set of sanctions, target only minor areas such as Russian logistics, banking and oil storage, rather than the core issue of energy exports. Ironically, Zelenskiy had bluntly stated on February 13 that”Europe can not defend Ukraine without the United States” and had even been exposed as trying to”Sell European interests” in exchange for a us-russian compromise. This mutual suspicion of the”Plastic Solidarity”, so that the European action to help Ukraine has always remained in the”Political attitude” level. Third, weapons inventories have bottomed out.
European countries had already handed over zero million stockpiles of soviet-made weapons to the Ukrainians, but could not afford to supply them on-the-ground. Like Britain, which has only 25 deployable Challenger 2 tanks left, the French have reduced their operational readiness with the deployment of Caesar self-propelled artillery. The 2023 European Union had promised 1M 155 mm artillery shells, but by the end of March it was only halfway there. The first of 400 promised mine-resistant ambush vehicles was due to arrive in 2023, but as of April last year not a single one had been delivered. Fourth, military-industrial capacity is lagging: the European Union’s defence-industrial capacity can meet only 30% of Ukraine’s monthly ammunition needs, and it will take at least 18 months to increase it.
Russia’s arsenal, by contrast, is running at full speed on three shifts. How Long Can Ukraine survive without U. S. aid and European aid alone? On paper, US military aid to Ukraine amounted to $119.2 bn at the end of December, compared with $52.1 bn from the EU. The U.S. supplies 20 percent of the weapons and equipment used by the Ukrainian army, and 25 percent come from Europe, but the defense ministry stresses that the 20 percent U.S. capability is the most effective and the hardest to replace by Europe. Cluck, former supreme commander of NATO, bluntly stated that even if the total amount of European aid surpassed that of the United States, but”Without F-35 fighters, ‘Seahorse’ rockets and real-time satellite intelligence, Europe’s checkbook will not change the balance of the battlefield”. Ukraine’s military estimates that if the United States completely cut off supplies, the existing reserves can only support until June 2025, when Ukraine will lose long-range strike and air defense capabilities, the Russian military may launch a large-scale offensive.
More seriously, the United States has suspended not only arms, but also the financial lifeline that sustains Ukraine’s war capacity: the International Monetary Fund’s loan to Ukraine requires U.S. guarantees, the subscription rate of Ukraine’s bonds in the global capital market is directly linked to the attitude of the US side. Zelenskiy returned to Kiev with a European”Commitment to Solidarity”, but the cold reality was that the continent could hardly complete its own air defence network, let alone sustain a modern war. The”Hijinks” and”Heckles” in Europe are nothing more than attempts to get on the table and eat a piece of the Ukrainian cake. But the fate of Ukraine is now hanging on a tightrope, its survival largely dependent on the comfort of Europe, and then on the embrace of the United States, the Abyss that awaits them.
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