On the first day of 2025, the Russia-ukraine gas deal expired, which was seen as“The end of the era when Russia sent gas through Ukraine to Europe”. So far, only two of Russia’s six main pipelines to Europe are still operating. Europe is divided: the European Commission says most countries can cope with the change, slovakia, Hungary and Moldova, a non-eu country, accused Ukraine of refusing to renew the agreement. At the same time, the US is seen as the“Winner” of the change, while there are voices in Europe concerned about over-reliance on the US. Renewable energy is the EU’s main solution to the energy crisis, but the recent large fluctuations in electricity prices have triggered concern about the instability of renewable energy in Europe.
Of the six main pipelines, only two remain
According to information from European gas pipeline facilities, before the outbreak of the Russian-ukrainian conflict, Russia sent gas from north to south through six major pipelines to European countries in turn, including the Baltic seabed“North Stream” pipeline, transit Belarus and Poland“Yamal” pipeline, transit Ukraine“Brother” pipeline and“Union” pipeline, and the Turkish stream and blue stream pipelines that carry natural gas to Turkey and southern Europe. After the outbreak of the Russian-ukrainian conflict, “North Stream” three of the four pipelines in September 2022 explosion leakage, “Yamal” pipeline was also closed at the end of August 2022, russia attributed the closure to sanctions and technical problems from Western countries. With the pipeline transiting Ukraine also ceasing to carry gas, only the“Turkish stream” and“Blue Stream” pipelines remain in operation at present, access to the Turkish domestic market and Hungary, Serbia and other Central European customers.
According to French Daily Express, before the expiry of the agreement, the Russian Gas Gazprom (Gazprom) exported more than 14 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe through Ukraine every year, although the transport volume is down from 117 billion cubic meters in 2008, it can still meet the needs of many Europeans. Austrian 2023 use 6.9 bn cubic metres of gas a year, according to the German data company Statista. After these natural gas outages, the most affected is the central and Eastern European countries, including Austria, Slovakia, Moldova and so on. In addition, according to Deutsche Welle, Belgian, Spanish, French and other European countries also import Russian liquefied natural gas through liquefied natural gas ships and have long-term contracts with the Russians.
According to“Russia Today” television reported on January 4, the European Union countries are increasingly concerned about the possible consequences of Russian gas transport was cut off. Kyiv’s decision to halt Russian gas shipments through Ukraine could undermine European stability and cooperation and cost Slovakia hundreds of millions of euros, Interior Minister Estók said. Greek media reported that the former Greek Energy Minister Rafazzanis called Ukraine’s move a“Crime and betrayal” and that Greek fears of a possible rise in gas prices were rising.
For EU countries with alternative options, the alternative is not sufficient to fully compensate for the loss of the route through Ukraine. The impact will be felt particularly in Hungary and Slovakia, where the Ukrainian transit route meets 65 per cent of their gas 2023, according to a paper published by the Bruegel Institute, a brussels-based think-tank. Orbán, the Hungarian prime minister, said that although gas could be imported from Russia via the Turkish stream and the impact of the shutdown would not be huge, to keep Hungarian gas imports from Russia at a“Reasonable price,” he“Doesn’t want to give up” even on smaller gas routes through Ukraine.
At the same time, German member of Parliament dagderun called for the start of the“North Stream -2” natural gas pipeline. The lawmaker said Ukraine’s decision to stop the transit of Russian gas would lead to higher energy prices and that Germany and the European Union were“Witnessing the collapse of parts of Europe”, russian natural gas must be transported through the“North Stream” of the remaining branches.
Moldova, a non-eu country, is already facing a serious energy crisis. (CNN) — more than 1,500 apartment CNN in the Transnistria region of Moldova’s breakaway region have no heating or hot water since Russia and Ukraine died, nearly 72,000 homes are without gas and about 150 boiler rooms have been shut down. At present, local governments have set a rolling blackout schedule. Russian 2024 supplies Moldova with about 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas a year, which travels through Ukraine to its Transnistria region, it is used to produce electricity, which is then sold to the government-controlled areas of Moldova. Moldova had long been in arrears before the gas cut-off.
For most of the rest of the EU, the impact of the Russian-ukrainian“Death gas” does not seem to be“Fatal”. According to figures published on the EU website, imports of Russian pipeline gas from EU member states have fallen from 40 per cent in 2021 to about 8 per cent of the 2023. The commission also said the EU was prepared for the change and that most countries would be able to deal with it, and that the impact on EU gas prices would not be significant.
However, European gas prices have risen. Benchmark European gas prices rose more than 4 per cent to $51 per megawatt-hour in Dutch TTF on the first day of trading after Russian gas shipments to Europe via Ukraine were halted, euronews said on the 3 Jan., the 2023’s highest level since October. In terms of natural gas reserves, the BBC’s Russian edition reported that while European Union countries were filling 95% of their gas storage facilities two months before the 2024 heating season began in November, but cold weather in November set a 15-year record for gas extraction, with storage facilities filling only 86 per cent of their 2024 by early December, compared with 96 per cent last year. In addition, the cost of filling storage facilities after the end of winter may be higher than expected.
“U.S. natural gas is unlikely to be a single source of energy for the European Union.”
German“Daily” 4 published an article analysis, said the European Union dependence on Russian natural gas has now become a history. In recent years, the EU has increased imports of American liquefied natural gas. This is not entirely voluntary, however, and stems in part from EU concerns that the next administration might impose tariffs on not buying more American liquefied natural gas.
Increased European imports of American liquefied natural gas also pose new risks. U.S. liquefied natural gas prices are volatile and supply stability is in doubt, Bloomberg reported. “The reward for Europe is a diversity of U.S. suppliers,” said Ira Joseph, a Senior Fellow at Columbia University’s Center for Global Energy Policy. “But the risk is that there could be a major change in U.S. policy in the future.”
“Europe’s new energy risk: replacing Russia with the US,” Politico reported on the subject. “The European Union replaced Russian energy with American energy after the outbreak of the Ukraine-russia conflict, and now people are wondering whether Europe is too dependent on the US,” which 202346 liquefied natural gas cent of EU imports, that is nearly double the figure for 2021. “Having experienced the security risks of over-reliance on a single source of energy, Europe must learn the lesson of avoiding over-reliance on the US,” said Makarevi?, an analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and financial analysis
However, Zhao Yongsheng, a researcher at the Beijing University of International Business and Economics’s National Institute for Opening Up Studies, told the global times that the EU is unlikely to be overly dependent on US energy, instead, this dependence will become less and less in the future. On the one hand, US gas costs are high and are only a complement to the EU and are unlikely to be a single source of energy for the EU. On the other hand, the EU’s future direction is to vigorously develop new energy, and the United States for the EU is still the majority of traditional energy.
“Central Asian countries can ensure growth in Russia’s pipeline gas exports.”
After Russia stopped sending gas across Ukraine to Europe, Ukraine’s energy minister, Galushenko, called Ukraine’s suspension of Russian gas transit a“Historic event.” “Russia is losing markets and will suffer economic losses,” it said. However, according to the Russian“Viewpoint” reported 3, Ukraine will urgently need new sources of natural gas, Ukraine is currently discussing whether the“Turkey Creek” pipeline to make up for the loss. Turkey is also preparing to increase its purchases of Russian gas, which it will resell to the European Union.
For the future export market of Russian natural gas, “In the next 10 years, neighboring countries, especially Central Asian countries, can ensure an increase of 20 billion to 25 billion cubic meters of Russia’s pipeline gas exports,” Russian satellite news agency quoted industry experts as saying. Russian gas supplies to Central Asian countries could technically reach 10 billion to 15 billion cubic meters, to increase supply, therefore, it is necessary to rebuild the “Central Asian” pipeline and expand the gas transport pipeline in transit countries. Other experts say Russian gas exports to China are expected to grow in the next few years, with supplies likely to set a new Asian record for Russia’s gas industry in 2025.
“Negative electricity prices mark a new year in Germany power supply and demand will remain seriously unbalanced.”
Renewable energy is the EU’s main solution to the energy crisis. Over the past two years, the EU has accelerated its energy transition, spending more than 500 billion euros on projects such as renewable energy, energy storage, grid upgrades and hydrogen development. In the first half of the 2024 year, wind and solar power generation reached a new high of 30 per cent of the EU’s total, surpassing fossil fuels for the first time. According to the Statistisches Bundesamt, 2023, about 25% of the EU’s total final energy consumption comes from renewable sources. In 2010 it was 14 per cent. The EU aims for renewable energy to account for 45 per cent of total energy consumption by 2030.
However, the green transition has not been smooth sailing. On January 2,2025, Germany, Europe’s largest electricity market, experienced four hours of negative electricity prices, which meant that the electricity market was oversupplied and the market settlement price was negative. “Negative electricity prices mark a new year in Germany, power supply and demand will remain seriously unbalanced,” the U. S. “Business Insider” website reported. Last month, after several days of windless weather in Europe halted wind power generation, and cold weather in the post-winter period increased demand for electricity, sending electricity prices to an 18-year high. Soon after, however, strong wind conditions led to a surge in electricity production and a sharp fall in electricity prices. The instability has raised the stakes for grid management and highlighted the challenges of Europe’s energy transition.
For the public, rising energy costs have exacerbated“Winter anxiety”. Aira, a clean-energy technology company, 2024 a poll in November that said energy costs were now a key challenge for households and were causing anxiety as winter approached. Seventy-seven percent of homeowners say they have been affected by rising energy costs, and almost half (44 percent) have had to dip into their savings to pay high energy bills.
Unstable power supplies are also exacerbating divisions within Europe. In December, Norway’s ruling party and the leading opposition in opinion polls 2024 plans to cut electricity connections with Denmark and renegotiate electricity connections with Germany and Britain in the face of rising domestic electricity prices and supply pressures, eU countries worried. Eba Busch, Sweden’s deputy prime minister and Minister for Energy and Commerce, said Germany’s nuclear phase-out was the main cause of the EU’s electricity price hike and he was“Very angry” with the German government.
Deutsche Welle argues that the weather is the direct cause of the price swings. The paper argues that renewable energy makes Europe’s electricity generation and supply systems more vulnerable to disruption, and that the greater the proportion of renewable energy available, the greater the reliance on the vagaries of the sun and wind. Therefore, to solve the problem of energy shortage, the construction of cross-border energy infrastructure should be the EU’s top priority.
Zhao Yongsheng told the global times that the current situation of the EU provides some enlightenment and lessons for other energy importing countries in the world. First, in the context of international turmoil, geopolitical changes, as a large economy, must realize the importance of energy autonomy as soon as possible, the energy“Rice Bowl” firmly in their hands. Second, we must unswervingly promote industrial transformation and develop new energy sources. It was not until the outbreak of the Russian-ukrainian conflict that the EU began to implement the energy transformation and promote the energy integration within the EU, which is the fundamental way to improve the EU’s industrial structure and energy structure. In this regard, Europe and China share common interests and will certainly continue to deepen cooperation. Third, in addition to developing new energy sources, we should further promote the greening of traditional energy sources and further optimize the energy structure.