One of the most dramatic aspects of American elections is the so-called”October surprise”.
With about 40 days to go before the US election, I’d like to talk about the”October surprise”.
The”October Surprise” is a surprise event that can have a big impact on a US presidential election about a month before the election. These events often have great unexpected and dramatic, and sometimes even change the voters’ voting choices, and then affect the final election results.
The concept dates back to the 1972 US presidential election.
On October 26 of that year, then-president Richard Nixon abruptly declared that “We believe peace is at hand,” hinting at the imminent withdrawal of American troops from Vietnam. This news immediately aroused widespread concern of the American people, and greatly eased the public because of the long involvement in the Vietnam War and the war-weary sentiment.
By doing so, Richard Nixon managed to win over anti-war voters and secure his re-election. Yet, ironically, shortly after winning re-election, Richard Nixon launched the largest bombing campaign of the Vietnam War.
The”October Surprise” has appeared many times in American election history, and almost every time has been a turning point in history.
Just five days before the 2004 presidential election, a video made by al-qaeda leader Bin Rardon was released. In the video, bin Laden lashes out at the Bush Bush administration, stoking voter fears of terrorism. The incident eventually helped Bush Bush win re-election, as he was known for his anti-terrorism efforts.
Then, in 2016, during the Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump presidential election, the FBI suddenly announced that it was reopening its investigation into Hillary’s use of a private email server for official business. The bombshell quickly sent shockwaves through the final stages of the campaign, taking a toll on Hillary and contributing to Donald Trump’s victory.
By 2020, the October surprise was back. On October 14 and 15, the New York Post published two days of revelations about the private lives of Biden’s son and his Hunter Biden, as well as allegations that Biden and his son had exchanged interests with the Ukrainians. The controversy did not stop Biden from winning.
With the 2024 of the US presidential election looming, there are signs that the political manipulation of the October surprise may be about to return. This time, the Prime Minister’s Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be behind it. The recent escalation of the israeli-lebanese War seems more likely to be an attempt by the Benjamin Netanyahu to pave the way for Trump to regain the White House than just a matter of regional strategic interests.
According to the investigation, there was already collusion between the Israelis and Donald Trump’s team.
Back in the 2016 election, much of the discussion focused on the relationship between the Russians and the Donald Trump campaign. While there was ultimately no hard evidence of direct Russian co-operation by Donald Trump, another neglected state may have been behind it: Israel. Donald Trump and his son-in-law Jarred Kushner meet their Benjamin Netanyahu at the Trump Tower on September 25,2016.
Just 12 days after the meeting, wikileaks released more than 2,000 private emails from the Democratic campaign headquarters. Most observers believe the revelations shook Hillary Clinton’s base and ultimately affected the outcome of the election.
The intervention was not an isolated incident. In 2016, journalists from more than 30 international news organizations participated in an eight-month joint investigative project. News organisations including Haaretz, The Guardian and The Observer, Le Monde, Der Spiegel and El Pais participated in the investigation, exposed the israeli-led global disinformation operation. The operation, headed by Tal Harnam, a former special forces agent, aims to interfere with elections in several countries around the world through false information. While the United States political and security establishment has expressed strong concern about Russian interference in the elections, these exposed Israeli actions have not been given the same level of attention.
With the 2024 election looming, the Benjamin Netanyahu appears to be planning yet another October surprise to help his old friend Donald Trump.
On 17 September, Israel launched a large-scale strike against Lebanon, resulting in a large number of civilian casualties. The timing of the military action is no coincidence and is likely to be an attempt by the Benjamin Netanyahu to create an international crisis to distract American voters and create a political advantage for Trump. Within the Democratic Party, voters who oppose genocide and meddling in wars in the Middle East matter, especially in key swing states. So by engineering a Middle Eastern War, the Benjamin Netanyahu may hope to help Trans appeal to these voters through his usual “Tough foreign and security policies”.
The Benjamin Netanyahu’s close relationship with Donald Trump is no secret.
Their collaboration helped Donald Trump win the election in 2016. Under Donald Trump, he further strengthened relations by recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel. In the Middle East, many of the Donald Trump administration’s decisions have been decidedly pro-israeli.
So the Benjamin Netanyahu clearly wants Donald Trump to win again, which will ensure that Israel remains the dominant force in US Middle East policy.
In July, the Benjamin Netanyahu met again with Donald Trump at mar-a-lago to reconnect. Presumably, they discussed strategies for preparing Donald Trump for another October surprise. This strategy is likely to involve forcing the US into regional conflicts through sustained military operations in Donald Trump and Gaza, thus providing political leverage for the US campaign.
The Benjamin Netanyahu’s strategy is understandable: he tries to manipulate American politics by creating wars and crises. He is well aware that international crises can often be effective in diverting public attention from domestic issues at critical moments in elections. The Biden administration has been trying to defuse the Israeli-lebanese conflict, but the Benjamin Netanyahu does not appear to be buying it and has instead stepped up military pressure on the country. If the Benjamin Netanyahu rejects the administration’s mediation, it may be a co-ordinated effort with the Donald Trump campaign to undermine the administration’s international reputation and help Donald Trump return to the White House.
For the Biden administration and the Democrats, this is certainly a tricky situation.
Vice President Harriss faces a dilemma when it comes to the Israeli war, between continuing to support Israel and risking the loss of sensitive Middle Eastern voters, or openly opposing the Benjamin Netanyahu’s war policy, at the risk of alienating a powerful pro-israel lobby.
So, in a 2024 election, we are likely to witness another October surprise that will have a profound effect on the outcome.
The Benjamin Netanyahu seems poised to once again manipulate American politics through his special relationship with Donald Trump. The escalation of the war in Lebanon could be a key card for Donald Trump’s campaign to use to divide voters in the Democratic Party who oppose the Israeli military action.
At the same time, Israel could continue to interfere with the election through behind-the-scenes operations, such as disinformation on social media or political donations.
But whatever the outcome, it is a safe bet that the 2024 election will be a complex international political game in which Israel, and particularly the Benjamin Netanyahu, could once again play a significant role.
In this global power struggle, “October surprise” has been”Rain is coming”, and the outcome of this time, may determine the next four years of world politics.